Clinical judgment to estimate pretest probability in the diagnosis of Cushing's syndrome under a Bayesian perspective

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the pretest probability of Cushing's syndrome (CS) diagnosis by a Bayesian approach using intuitive clinical judgment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Physicians were requested, in seven endocrinology meetings, to answer three questions: "Based on your personal expertise, after obtaining clinical history and physical examination, without using laboratorial tests, what is your probability of diagnosing Cushing's Syndrome?"; "For how long have you been practicing Endocrinology?"; and "Where do you work?". A Bayesian beta regression, using the WinBugs software was employed. RESULTS: We obtained 294 questionnaires. The mean pretest probability of CS diagnosis was 51.6% (95%CI: 48.7-54.3). The probability was directly related to experience in endocrinology, but not with the place of work. CONCLUSION: Pretest probability of CS diagnosis was estimated using a Bayesian methodology. Although pretest likelihood can be context-dependent, experience based on years of practice may help the practitioner to diagnosis CS. Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2012;56(9):633-7

Bourgin-Yang version of the Borsuk-Ulam theorem for Z(pk)-equivariant maps

Let G = Z(pk) be a cyclic group of prime power order and let V and W be orthogonal representations of G with V-G = W-G = W-G = {0}. Let S(V) be the sphere of V and suppose f: S(V) -> W is a G-equivariant mapping. We give an estimate for the dimension of the set f(-1){0} in terms of V and W. This extends the Bourgin-Yang version of the Borsuk-Ulam theorem to this class of groups. Using this estimate, we also estimate the size of the G-coincidences set of a continuous map from S(V) into a real vector space W'.

Computational tools for comparing asymmetric GARCH models via Bayes factors

In this paper we use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in order to estimate and compare GARCH models from a Bayesian perspective. We allow for possibly heavy tailed and asymmetric distributions in the error term. We use a general method proposed in the literature to introduce skewness into a continuous unimodal and symmetric distribution. For each model we compute an approximation to the marginal likelihood, based on the MCMC output. From these approximations we compute Bayes factors and posterior model probabilities. (C) 2012 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the zeros of polynomials: an extension of the Enestrom-Kakeya theorem

This paper presents an extension of the Enestrom-Kakeya theorem concerning the roots of a polynomial that arises from the analysis of the stability of Brown (K, L) methods. The generalization relates to relaxing one of the inequalities on the coefficients of the polynomial. Two results concerning the zeros of polynomials will be proved, one of them providing a partial answer to a conjecture by Meneguette (1994)[6]. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Kleiner's theorem for unitary representations of posets

A subspace representation of a poset S = {s(1), ..., S-t} is given by a system (V; V-1, ..., V-t) consisting of a vector space V and its sub-spaces V-i such that V-i subset of V-j if s(i) (sic) S-j. For each real-valued vector chi = (chi(1), ..., chi(t)) with positive components, we define a unitary chi-representation of S as a system (U: U-1, ..., U-t) that consists of a unitary space U and its subspaces U-i such that U-i subset of U-j if S-i (sic) S-j and satisfies chi 1 P-1 + ... + chi P-t(t) = 1, in which P-i is the orthogonal projection onto U-i. We prove that S has a finite number of unitarily nonequivalent indecomposable chi-representations for each weight chi if and only if S has a finite number of nonequivalent indecomposable subspace representations; that is, if and only if S contains any of Kleiner's critical posets. (c) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Regularity at infinity of real mappings and a Morse-Sard theorem

We prove a new Morse-Sard-type theorem for the asymptotic critical values of semi-algebraic mappings and a new fibration theorem at infinity for C-2 mappings. We show the equivalence of three different types of regularity conditions which have been used in the literature in order to control the asymptotic behaviour of mappings. The central role of our picture is played by the p-regularity and its bridge toward the rho-regularity which implies topological triviality at infinity.

Kurzweil integral for Riesz space-valued functions: Uniform convergence theorem

Our objective here is to prove that the uniform convergence of a sequence of Kurzweil integrable functions implies the convergence of the sequence formed by its corresponding integrals.

A uniqueness theorem for the determination of sources in the Germain–Lagrange plate equation

We prove a uniqueness result related to the Germain–Lagrange dynamic plate differential equation. We consider the equation {∂2u∂t2+△2u=g⊗f,in ]0,+∞)×R2,u(0)=0,∂u∂t(0)=0, where uu stands for the transverse displacement, ff is a distribution compactly supported in space, and g∈Lloc1([0,+∞)) is a function of time such that g(0)≠0g(0)≠0 and there is a T0>0T0>0 such that g∈C1[0,T0[g∈C1[0,T0[. We prove that the knowledge of uu over an arbitrary open set of the plate for any interval of time ]0,T[]0,T[, 0